The Tank Race: The Race for 2nd
3 teams battle for the 2nd lotto spot...who wins?!?!
The Tank Race:
BOSTON, MA ----- While we have discussed both the Eastern and Western Conference playoff races thoroughly, one race we have not focused on is the current tank race ongoing between the Anaheim Ducks, Boston Bruins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Rangers, in what has been generalized as a 4-team race for Finnish winger Patrick Laine and American center Auston Matthews, with both being touted as franchise pieces for any organization.
While, the race has been generalized as a 4-team race, the race is realistically down to 3 teams for that 2nd potential lottery spot, with the Ducks have an unprecedented awful year, with a total of 3 points in 33 games, and probably the best tank job the league has ever seen. While the 1st lotto spot is all but secured at this point, the race for the 2nd lotto spot has been hotly contested, with CBJ, BOS, and NYR competing daily for losses.
Currently, the Bruins are slightly on the outside looking in, with a total of 15 points in their 33 games, while the Blue Jackets are close behind with 24 points in 29 games, giving them a slightly better win percentage than Boston. While Boston and Columbus have battled for the 3rd spot, the Rangers are sitting nicely in that second spot with only 12 points in 34 games, a significant advantage on both the Jackets and Bruins.
With over a third of the year finished, and the race to get losses heating up, we take a look at the remaining 66% of the schedule for all three teams in the race for the second spot, and potentially a franchise-changing player.
In order to quantify the teams both current and remaining schedules, I assigned a value of points to a team per win %. In this example, the best team’s win % is worth 30 points (top of the league) and the worst win % is worth the least, while teams that are tied split the points 3-ways to make sure all teams had equal point values.
1. Hawks – 30 pts
2. Devils – 29 pts
3. Capitals – 28 pts
4. Stars – 27 pts
5. Islanders – 26 pts
6. Sharks – 24.5 pts
7. Hurricanes – 24.5 pts
8. Wings – 23 pts
9. Preds – 22 pts
10. Canadiens – 21 pts
11. Sens – 19.3 pts
12. Penguins 19.3 pts
13. Canucks – 19.3 pts
14. Oilers – 17 pts
15. Flames – 16 pts
16. Coyotes – 15 pts
17. Blues – 14 pts
18. Sabres – 13 pts
19. Lightning – 12 pts
20. Wild – 11 pts
21. Flyers – 9.5 pts
22. Jets – 9.5 pts
23. Kings - 7.5 pts
24. Leafs – 7.5 pts
25. Avs – 6 pts
26. Panthers – 5 pts
27. Jackets – 4 pts
28. Bruins – 3 pts
29. Rangers – 2 pts
30. Ducks – 1 pt
After adding up 3 of the teams schedule scores, we see a pretty big disparity in the bottom 3 teams schedules so far, including a pretty big advantage for 1 specific team.
Strength of Schedule So Far:
Rangers – 18.98 pts per opponent. The hardest of the 3 teams by far (5th hardest in league)
Jackets – 15.56 pts per opponent. The 2nd hardest of the 3 teams so far. (9th easiest in league)
Bruins – 13.19 pts per opponent. The easiest schedule of the 3 teams so far. (2nd easiest in league)
Strength of Schedule Remaining:
Bruins – 22.3 pts per opponent. The hardest remaining schedule of the three teams (2nd hardest in league)
Jackets – 18.75 pts per opponent. The 2nd hardest remaining schedule of the 3 teams (11th hardest in league)
Rangers – 12.21 pts per opponent. The easiest schedule of the 3 remaining teams (easiest schedule in the league)
While we can clearly see that the Rangers have done a good job tanking, the team has faced the 5th hardest schedule in the league so far based on opponent win percentage, and has the easiest remaining schedule in league based off current opponent win percentage. To say that the Rangers are in for a battle to remain tank relevant during the remaining 60ish% of the season, would be an understatement with two remaining games vs the Ducks, as well as four remaining matchups vs the Jackets and one more pivotal game vs the Bruins. The Rangers currently still need to face the Sabres, Lightning, Wild, Flyers, Kings, Leafs, Avalanche, and Panthers multiple times, and have one more matchup vs both the Jets and Coyotes. The Rangers will have to do some serious tanking to maneuver the rest of the season to stay within the tank race in the next few months. Anthony better be prepared for a fight.
In what might come down to the key tanking for the rest of the season, both the Bruins and Jackets prepare for relatively easy schedules for the rest of the season. The biggest problem for the Jackets comes with the New York Rangers, who they will have to face 4 times over the remaining schedule, and 1 potential massive matchup vs the Bruins just one week from today. The Jackets do have a few small advantages here and there over the Bruins however. The Jackets will not face the almost auto-loss Ducks again this season, while the Bruins will have to see them once more down the stretch. However, the Jackets will have to face off against the Panthers, Leafs, Jets, Flyers, Wild, and Sabres at least twice more, which could be a tough test to rack up losses against some of those fading teams down the stretch.
The Bruins have clearly the easiest tank schedule remaining, and likely a much easier path to the 2nd potential lotto spot, than either NYR or CBJ. While the Bruins will have to face the Ducks one more time, as well as the Kings, Flyers, Blues, and Coyotes once more each, the Bruins have yet to play the Blackhawks, Stars, Sharks, Predators, Canucks or Oilers, and will face all at least twice. The B’s will also still have at least 1 more game against the Devils, Capitals, Islanders, Hurricanes, Red Wings, Canadiens, Senators, Penguins, and Flames.
With a third of the season already past us, we have a somewhat decent idea where all the teams remain, and while we have seen a competitive tank job by these three teams competing for the #2 spot, there could be a lot of movement in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spots in the lotto race. Should be a fun one to watch during the remainder of the season. Oh and don’t worry, we’ll have another one of these before the season is over.