BRHL Round 3 Playoff Predictions
Part II: Eastern Conference Finals

Senators by the Numbers:
Points Leader: John Tavares (83)
Goals Leader: John Tavares (33)
Goalie: Braden Holtby (40 W, 0.915 PCT, 2.50 GAA)

Devils by the Numbers:
Points Leader: Wayne Simmonds (81)
Goals Leader: Wayne Simmonds (39)
Goalie: Devan Dubnyk (41 W, 0.919 PCT, 2.35 GAA)

Regular Season Head to Head: Ottawa (2-1-0-0)


Playoffs By the Numbers:

Ottawa:
Points Leader: Jonathan Huberdeau (9)
Goals Leader: Jonathan Huberdeau (3)
Goalie: Braden Holtby (6-2, 0.952 PCT, 1.39 GAA)

New Jersey:

Points Leader: Wayne Simmonds (17)
Goals Leader: Wayne Simmonds (8)
Goalie: Devan Dubnyk (7-3, 0.934 PCT, 2.22 GAA)

Analysis:
For the second straight season, the defensing cup champion Ottawa Senators have advanced into the Eastern Conference finals; but it’s safe to say that they’ve had a relatively easy ride so far and the New Jersey Devils will be their toughest challenge this playoffs.

This is not to say that Ottawa has been playing poorly; far from it.  Led by Jonathan Huberdeau, the Sens have the second most goals for and the best goals against record so far out of all the remaining teams in the playoffs with goalie Braden Hotlby shutting things down on the Senators backend sporting an impressive 0.952 save percentage and 1.39 GAA in 8 starts.

But the Detroit Red Wings, whom Ottawa took out in the first round, while possessing a high octane offence and, on paper at least, an equally impressive blueline, were plagued with consistency issues all season long, especially in net with goalie Corey Crawford.  The Senators second round opponents, the Montreal Canadiens, lost their starting goaltender in their first round matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes, and an Ottawa victory was a far gone conclusion even before the opening puck drop in that series.
But in the New Jersey Devils, Ottawa now faces a team that was second in goals for in the regular season, had the second best goals against record in the East in the regular season, and was more or less neck and neck with the top teams in the East from opening night.

And despite a game 7 scare in their last series against the upstart New York Rangers, the Devils have carried their regular season play into these playoffs out scoring their opponents 37 to 28 in their 12 games played so far.  And while New Jersey netminder’s numbers aren’t quite as good as Holtby’s, Dubnyk has shut the door when it mattered the most and has the elusive playoff shutout under his belt which he earned in the first round against the Florida Panthers.

Prediction:
This series will be fun to watch.  On paper at least, both teams match up fairly evenly. The Senators may have lost a step when comparing their roster from last season with Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson in the lineup, but led by John Tavares, Johnathan Huberdeau and Anders Lee; Ottawa still has plenty of firepower.  But the Devils have plenty of firepower themselves, with Logan Couture, Nick Foligno, and of course Wayne Simmonds. And there are not a lot of differences to choose between Ekman-Larsson/Holtby versus Goligoski/Dubnyk.

What may ultimately decide this series are specialty teams.  To date, both teams have been atrocious on the Power Play with the Devils sporting a measly 16% conversion rate and Ottawa and even worse 10%.  Both teams have had better success on the PK with Ottawa leading the way at 88% and New Jersey at 82%.  As mentioned, both teams have a tremendous amount of firepower available that has not translated well on the PP.  The first team to wake up will have a decisive advantage.

So who will take this series and advance to the finals?  Well, you can never count out Kirk and his Ottawa Senators and they *are* the defending champs.  If there ever was a sim darling, it’s got to be the Sens as they always seemingly find a way to win in the post season and this year was no exception as they took down two teams that had stronger rosters to get to this point.

But we think that this is New Jersey’s year.  They were the epitome of slow and steady this season with no winning streak lasting longer than 8 games and no losing streak going more than 4 games in the regular season.  They last won the cup four years ago against the Chicago Blackhawks and were strong favorites to win it all last season only to have the misfortune to run up against the hottest team in the league down the stretch in the first round.  We don’t think they’ll be denied a return trip to the finals this time around; New Jersey in 6.