BRHL Round 2 Playoff Predictions

Part I: Western Conference

1

Chicago Blackhawks

vs.

4

Nashville Predators

 

(63-13-2-4)

   

(47-29-1-5)


Hawks by the Numbers:
Points Leader:
Logan Couture (74)
Goals Leader: Jeff Carter (30)
Goalie: Thomas Greiss (38 W, 0.921 PCT, 2.09 GAA)

Preds by the Numbers:
Points Leader:
Patrice Bergeron (66)
Goals Leader: Patrice Bergeron (34)
Goalie: Roberto Luongo (41 W, 0.916 PCT, 2.07 GAA)

Regular Season Head to Head: Chicago (4-1-0-0)


Playoffs By the Numbers:

Chicago:
Points Leader:
Logan Couture (7)
Goals Leader: Mark Stone (4)
Goalie: Thomas Greiss (3-2, 0.929 PCT, 2.20 GAA)

Nashville:
Points Leader:
Patrice Bergeron (7)
Goals Leader: Patrice Bergeron (3)
Goalie: Roberto Luongo (4-1, 0.908 PCT, 2.40 GAA)

Analysis:
This will be a very interesting series to watch. Chicago’s is a lineup that is built on offense and can roll, and score, on all four lines. They led the league in goals scored with a whopping 291 in the regular season and are among the leaders in the playoffs so far with 19 in their six games played. But if there’s one Achilles heel that can be said of the Hawks is that their defensive play is only average at best with only a few high end and overall defensive assets.

Enter the Nashville Predators. The Preds were tied for second with the Dallas Stars for allowing the fewest goals against in the regular season with 178 and have only allowed 12 goals against in their five games played so far. Nashville also sports a plethora of ‘defense first’ players led by Marcus Kruger up front and Nick Schultz on their back end. And then there of course is Roberto Luongo in net.

Nashville quite easily upset the Dallas Stars in five games in the first round despite being the underdogs offensively. And in the goalie matchup against the Hawks, Luongo should get the nod; but, he’s been underwhelming in these playoffs thus far with only a so-so 0.908 sv% and a 2.40 GAA. Contrast that with his Chicago counterpart in Thomas Greiss who is sporting a 0.929 sv% and a 2.20 GAA.

Prediction:
Luongo will be the key to this series and how well he plays will determine whether or not Nashville will advance to the second conference finals. But unless Luongo improves his play significantly, this will be a very short series. Yes, I’m biased, but I think the Hawks offense will be too much for Shed’s Preds and Lou won’t be up to the task. Chicago in 6

2

Calgary Flames

vs.

5

Edmonton Oilers

 

(54-26-0-2)

   

(44-28-7-3)


Flames by the Numbers:
Points Leader:
Aleksander Barkov (75)
Goals Leader: Johnny Gaudreau (34)
Goalie: Craig Anderson (30 W, 0.919 PCT, 2.24 GAA)

Oilers by the Numbers:
Points Leader:
Ryan Johansen (60)
Goals Leader: Nick Bjugstad (26)
Goalie: Jaroslav Halak (35 W, 0.919 PCT, 2.16 GAA)

Regular Season Head to Head: Calgary (3-1-0-0)


Playoffs By the Numbers:

Calgary:
Points Leader:
Brian Campbell (5)
Goals Leader: Brian Campbell (3)
Goalie: Craig Anderson (4-1, 0.930 PCT, 1.60 GAA)

Edmonton:
Points Leader:
Nick Bjugstad (5)
Goals Leader: Nick Bjugstad (2)
Goalie: Jaroslav Halak (3-1, 0.949 PCT, 1.54 GAA)

Analysis:
On the surface this edition of the ‘Battle of Alberta’ should be a slam-dunk for the Flames; they won their regular season matchup against the Oilers fairly handily with three wins and only one loss and have offense to burn as they had two players top the 30 goal plateau with Sean Monahan narrowly missing at 29. Compare that to the Oilers who only had Nick Bjugstad score over 20 goals in the regular season for Edmonton and had the second least amount of goals for out of all the teams in this season’s playoffs.

Fast forward to the end of the first round and things have evened up a bit. Both teams only took 5 games to dispatch their respective first round opponents and their goals for and against at the end of the first round are nearly identical. Much of this can be attributed to the play of the goalies for each team.

Both Craig Anderson and Jan Halak posted very similar, and very average, numbers during the course of the regular season. But both goalies have been unreal so far in this year’s playoffs with Anderson sporting a superb 0.930 sv% and 1.60 GAA for the Flames while Jan Halak has been unhuman posting a 0.949 sv % and a 1.54 GAA for Edmonton. It’s now a question of who’s playing above their ability and who’s peaking at just the right time. If both netminders can keep up their exceptional play, this is shaping up to be very much a goaltending duel where the outcome of the series will be determined by who blinks first.

Prediction: The Calgary Flames have a clear offensive advantage over the Oilers in terms of top-end firepower and one can’t help but wonder if Halak’s outstanding numbers in the first round were a result of the Oilers being matched up against a Vancouver Canucks team that had even more of a dearth in scoring than they do. If Halak is the real deal, they’ll upset the Flames, but we’re thinking not. Calgary in 6.

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